Prime Minister Mark Carney has suggested that Canada may eventually be ready for a controlled increase in its population, signalling a possible shift after several years of tightening immigration levels.
As reported by Global News, Carney said that with the immigration system back under control, the question is when Canada should begin a controlled increase in population.
The Immigration Pendulum
We have been overusing a metaphor for many months now: the pendulum swing.
People ask why they cannot find a viable permanent residence pathway as caregivers or entrepreneurs, and why IT workers and finance professionals have been left out of category-based Express Entry draws.
In our view, the government was wrong to address concerns about the rapid rise in temporary residents by sharply reducing permanent residence spots. The previous 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan reduced the planned number of permanent resident admissions from the earlier target of 500,000 in 2025 to 395,000.
The consequences extend beyond numbers in an immigration plan. People who came to Canada, worked here and contributed to the economy have faced fewer opportunities to transition to permanent residence.
Canada has also tightened access to its refugee determination system. Former immigration minister Marc Miller previously raised concerns about immigration consultants advising international students to make asylum claims without proper grounds. Bill C-12 has since introduced new eligibility restrictions that mean certain claims are no longer referred to the Refugee Protection Division for a hearing, although affected individuals may still have access to a pre-removal risk assessment.
The pendulum swung heavily toward restriction. The question now is whether it is beginning to move in the other direction.
Canada Still Needs Skilled Workers
There are reasons to believe it eventually will.
Canada has an aging population and a low birth rate. We also talk to companies every day that desperately need skilled workers they cannot find here. For some businesses, access to those workers sustains their operations and helps keep their Canadian workers gainfully employed.
The federal government’s current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan maintains permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually. Economic immigration is expected to account for 64 per cent of permanent resident admissions in 2027 and 2028.
Global News reported that the C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council has recommended continuing to reduce immigration over the next three years, while concerns about housing, infrastructure and public services remain part of the national discussion.
Those concerns should not be ignored. But neither should Canada’s long-term demographic realities or the needs of Canadian employers.
Conclusion
The Prime Minister’s comments do not mean that Canada has officially returned to higher immigration levels. Any change will depend on future government decisions and immigration levels plans.
Still, his comments are significant. Canadian immigration policy has moved substantially toward restriction in recent years. We have consistently said that the pendulum swings one way and then the other. The comments may be an early indication that the conversation is beginning to shift again.
Contact Jain Immigration Law
If you have questions about permanent residence, Express Entry, work permits, refugee matters or other Canadian immigration issues, contact Jain Immigration Law to discuss your circumstances with an experienced Canadian immigration lawyer.
Jain Immigration Law
Phone: +1 (416) 548-5533
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.jainimmigrationlaw.com
Disclosure
This article is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration laws, policies, and program requirements may change. Individuals should obtain legal advice based on their specific circumstances.
Is Canada’s Immigration Pendulum Starting to Swing Back?
Home » Blog » Is Canada’s Immigration Pendulum Starting to Swing Back?
Prime Minister Mark Carney has suggested that Canada may eventually be ready for a controlled increase in its population, signalling a possible shift after several years of tightening immigration levels.
As reported by Global News, Carney said that with the immigration system back under control, the question is when Canada should begin a controlled increase in population.
The Immigration Pendulum
We have been overusing a metaphor for many months now: the pendulum swing.
People ask why they cannot find a viable permanent residence pathway as caregivers or entrepreneurs, and why IT workers and finance professionals have been left out of category-based Express Entry draws.
In our view, the government was wrong to address concerns about the rapid rise in temporary residents by sharply reducing permanent residence spots. The previous 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan reduced the planned number of permanent resident admissions from the earlier target of 500,000 in 2025 to 395,000.
The consequences extend beyond numbers in an immigration plan. People who came to Canada, worked here and contributed to the economy have faced fewer opportunities to transition to permanent residence.
Canada has also tightened access to its refugee determination system. Former immigration minister Marc Miller previously raised concerns about immigration consultants advising international students to make asylum claims without proper grounds. Bill C-12 has since introduced new eligibility restrictions that mean certain claims are no longer referred to the Refugee Protection Division for a hearing, although affected individuals may still have access to a pre-removal risk assessment.
The pendulum swung heavily toward restriction. The question now is whether it is beginning to move in the other direction.
Canada Still Needs Skilled Workers
There are reasons to believe it eventually will.
Canada has an aging population and a low birth rate. We also talk to companies every day that desperately need skilled workers they cannot find here. For some businesses, access to those workers sustains their operations and helps keep their Canadian workers gainfully employed.
The federal government’s current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan maintains permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually. Economic immigration is expected to account for 64 per cent of permanent resident admissions in 2027 and 2028.
Global News reported that the C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council has recommended continuing to reduce immigration over the next three years, while concerns about housing, infrastructure and public services remain part of the national discussion.
Those concerns should not be ignored. But neither should Canada’s long-term demographic realities or the needs of Canadian employers.
Conclusion
The Prime Minister’s comments do not mean that Canada has officially returned to higher immigration levels. Any change will depend on future government decisions and immigration levels plans.
Still, his comments are significant. Canadian immigration policy has moved substantially toward restriction in recent years. We have consistently said that the pendulum swings one way and then the other. The comments may be an early indication that the conversation is beginning to shift again.
Contact Jain Immigration Law
If you have questions about permanent residence, Express Entry, work permits, refugee matters or other Canadian immigration issues, contact Jain Immigration Law to discuss your circumstances with an experienced Canadian immigration lawyer.
Jain Immigration Law
Phone: +1 (416) 548-5533
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.jainimmigrationlaw.com
Disclosure
This article is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration laws, policies, and program requirements may change. Individuals should obtain legal advice based on their specific circumstances.